A supercharged El Niño is gaining strength in the Pacific Ocean and could batter California later this year and into next, according to a new report.
The latest outlook, released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, warns El Niño is expected to intensify through the end of the year, the SFGATE reports.
There’s also a 60% chance the weather phenomenon becomes the most powerful recorded since 1950, according to NOAA.
“This is not your normal El Niño,” Daniel Rudnick, a physical oceanographer at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, told SFGATE.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is now a greater than 79% chance that strong to very strong El Niño conditions will persist through Jan. to March 2027.
The agency’s latest findings show temperatures in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific have climbed more than 4 degrees Celsius above normal, with unusually warm waters spreading farther west.
Forecasters believe the phenomenon will continue gaining strength before gradually weakening in early 2027. NOAA’s next El Niño update is scheduled for Dec. 10.
But NOAA cautioned that even an exceptionally powerful El Niño does not guarantee that every region will experience the extreme weather typically associated with the phenomenon.
California could be among the areas most affected by the intensifying weather pattern, which has historically been associated with wetter winters across the southern US.
El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures rise above normal in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, disrupting atmospheric circulation and influencing weather patterns around the globe.
The phenomenon typically develops every two to seven years and can go on for anywhere between nine and 12 months.
In Southern California, stronger El Niño events can increase the likelihood of storms arriving from the Pacific, potentially bringing heavy rainfall, flooding and other weather-related hazards.
Northern portions of North America, meanwhile, tend to experience milder and drier winter conditions during El Niño years.
The weather pattern’s influence extends far beyond the US’s general geography.
Some parts of South America, Africa, Australia and southern Asia can experience prolonged drought, while other regions face unusually heavy rainfall and destructive flooding.
Those shifts can have major consequences for agriculture, fishing industries and communities dependent on rainfall for water and electricity.
El Niño can also reshape hurricane activity across the world’s oceans.
In the Atlantic, the phenomenon generally creates atmospheric conditions that suppress tropical storm development, while warmer Pacific waters can help fuel more powerful hurricanes and typhoons.
The contrast has been particularly noticeable in 2026, with the Atlantic experiencing unusually low tropical storm activity as the Pacific recorded exceptionally intense systems.
The Eastern Pacific has already seen 21 named tropical systems this year, while 32 typhoons have been tracked in the Western Pacific, according to CBS News.
Some Pacific storms have also generated powerful waves that reached the California coastline, contributing to beach erosion.
Beyond storms and flooding, researchers have raised concerns about the broader consequences of the unusually warm conditions.
A University of Chicago study released in September estimated that this year’s El Niño could contribute to about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide compared with a typical year.
